Below Replacement Fertility in Sri Lanka

By A.T.P.L. Abeykoon

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Description: Historically, populations have replaced themselves. Each couple has had at least two children so that one generation could replace the next generation. If couples on average have more than two children, each generation become larger than the previous generation and population grows over time. In fact during much of the second half of the last century this is exactly what happened. For many countries and for the world as a whole, couples had many more than two children and population growth rates increased rapidly. However, during the past decade, a relatively new population issue has been evolving in some countries. Couples in these countries are having on an average, fewer births than are necessary for generations to replace themselves. Thus more and more countries are experiencing levels of fertility below which demographers call "replacement fertility". What are the causes of fertility decline in Sri Lanka? the rise in age at marriage of females and increased use of contraception have undoubtedly contributed to fertility decline.What are the benefits to society from low fertility? a) low fertility enables the population grow at a slow pace and facilitate the improvements in per capita incomes. b) Better bith spacing with contraceptive use has contributed to the reduction of infant and maternal mortality rates c) As a result of fertility decline Sri Lanka's current age structure iis ideally suited for economic expansion. what are the consequences of low fertility? a) One major concern expressed with regard to fertility decline in Sri Lanka is the possible decline in the absolute number of those in the work force. If such a situation arises in Sri Lanka, it could take advantage of the cheap surplus labour in other South Asian countries. b) population ageing is seen as an important social and health issue. A significant proportion of Sri Lankans in the age category 60 to 70 years are relatively healthy and physically and mentally able to contribute to economic activity. Thus the proportion of those 70 years and over in the total population drops to 4.4% from 10.0% and will increase to only 9% instead of reaching 20% in 2025. This puts the problem of population ageing into better focus and makes it easier for planners to address the ensuing issues. c) One of the important concerns in low fertility multi-ethnic countries is the ethnic composition and its future change. Population projections by ethnic groups done by the author show that when Sri Lanka's population stabilizes at around 23 million, the Sinhalese would comprise about 16 million, Sri lanka Tamils 3 million, Moors 2.5 million and Indian Tamils 1.5 million. By then the proportionate share of the Sinhalese would be about 71 per cent and the Moors will comprise 10 percent of the total population.