Estimates of Abortion Rate in Sri Lanka using Bongaarts Model of Proximate Determinants of Fertility

By A.T.P.L. Abeykoon

Subjects: Abortion, Mathematical models

Description: The paper makes an attempt to estimate the total abortion rate for Sri Lanka during 1993 to 2006/07 using Bongarrts model of proximate determinants of fertility. It is evident from the analysis that the induced abortion rate in Sri Lanka has risen from a low level of 0.035 in the early 1990s to a peak level of 0.147 by the end of the decade and thereafter declined to a rate of 0.087 during 2006/07. The 2006/07 rate indicates that if there were no abortions taking place during that period, the total fertility rate would have been higher by 0.087. When data of selected districts are examined, it is seen that the prevalence of induced abortion in the Batticaloa district is notably high. Colombo and Trincomalee districts also show relatively high rates. In Batticaloa and Trincomalee, the main cause for induced abortions may be the lack of adequate contraceptive services or reluctance to use them, as evident from the high unmet need for contraception. In the Colombo district, it may be that induced abortions resorted to, due to method failure or is being used as a method of family planning. There are also indications that induced abortion is high in the Ampara and Gampha districts. In Ampara, it may be due to the relatively high unmet need for contraception and in Gampha as in the case of Colombo, it is possible that induced abortions are resorted due to method failure. The study, therefore, hilights the need to strengthen the family planning service delivery and educational programmes in the districts of Batticaloa, Trincomalee, and Ampara. In the districts of Colombo and Gampha, educational programmes need to focus on the effective use of contraceptive methods as well as on the adverse effects of induced abortion. The full publication can be seen at: http://www.ihp.lk/publications/docs/EOASL.pdf